Oh the winds of change or fecklessness
Oh the winds of change or fecklessness....
"Russia Eyes Permanent Military Bases in Latin America" according to Argentina’s La Nacion. “The escalation between Russia and the United States rose further this week when, after 16 years of absence, Russia announced its willingness to revive its military bases in Cuba and Vietnam, two countries that symbolize confrontation between the West and the Soviet Union (USSR) during the years of the Cold War.” Reporting emphasizes Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Russia has come up with a list of countries where it’s considering opening military bases that besides Cuba could also include Nicaragua and Venezuela. Observers doubt that Cuba would allow Moscow to open a military base on the island as it could be seen as a threat to the US at a time when Havana is seeking better relations with Washington. However, commentators point out Russia has a strong rapprochement with Nicaragua and President Ortega, which has raised concerns in Washington.
Interesting stuff coming out of State eyeballing what is being reported by the regional press. However, with the fiscal difficulties being seen in Russia, the actual "bases" being "opened" overseas may be a "base" in name only with little infrastructure to support any type of sustain operations. Might also be smoke being blown by Russia to get an overreaction by the US. Key here is how much autonomy they will receive from these host countries to conduct ops if they install, operate and maintain a semi-permanent physical presence. Of course, all the nations that they want to work with we already have issues with so one could probably expect some wide latitude especially if whatever they are doing is specifically targeting the US. The quip about Venezuela is long overdue and surprising that we haven't had more reporting on this. Mentioning the expanding of ops in Venezuela might cause some regional neighbors (example: Columbia) to take notice which of course would teak US efforts in the region. It would also be a good foil or alternative card Moscow can use to pressure the Cubans to open more doors should China's influence (perhaps in the way of $$$) start shutting out Russian initiatives in that island nation. The re-establishing of ties between the US and Cuba no doubt has Russia sitting up a tad straighter and paying a little bit more attention to see where this all goes.
The odd duck here is Vietnam. Haven't seen anything anywhere about increased Russian presence in that nation much less any requests from Vietnam for Russian assistance. Of course, if the growing China sphere of influence continues to expand, Vietnam might get smacked and thus will be looking for regional allies to hedge their bets. Russia seems to be about the only country that didn't try to say that they have equities in the South China Sea off the Philippines. However, it did seem that a couple of years back, Vietnam did offer to us some limited access to our old naval facility at Cam Ranh Bay...hmmm.
- Matt Caldwell
